Politics!

[Berliner]

If smann gets shameless plugs, I certainly do right?

This is probably the most scattered, flawed, ranty blogs I've written, but it captures a lot of what I've been thinking about these days.

I also completely agree with this sentiment:

“In short a key difficulty faced by regimes in decline was selfish elites. Nations that were the richest countries in their day suffered fiscal crises because elites preferred to protect their private wealth, even at the expense of a deterioration of state finances, public services, and long-term international strength. By ‘selfish elites’ I do not mean, of course, simply elites’ aspirations to maintain disproportionate shares of wealth and power. That ambition is a universal constant. What I wish to emphasize is that in some eras in history, elites have identified their interests with the national state and the public weal, and they have been willing to tax themselves heavily to expand the influence and resources of their nation and their government. At other times, … elites have turned into competing factions, driven by self-enrichment at the expense of their rivals and opponents, even when that meant starving the national state of resources needed for public improvements and international competitiveness.

“In addition, declining regimes were beset by factionalism within the elites that paralyzed decision-making. Struggles for prestige and authority took precedence over a united approach to resolving fiscal and social problems. Among English gentry in Parliament, within the French Estates General and the National Assembly, among Ottoman officials, and within the ranks of Chinese scholars, partisanship prevailed over consensus—with disastrous results.”

Which is to say, everything around us says we're fucked.

[Weinerslave]

Which is to say, everything around us says we're fucked.

THAT'S what I've been saying!

Dukes, how the hell does Carter's defeat possibly invalidate the thesis that economic conditions are key to incumbent re-election? The economy was a rancid crock of shit in 1980, whether or not Reagan and his magical Reaganness made Carter look like a "dumb pussy" whatever the hell that means.

Nate Silver recently did a breakdown of different electoral prediction models that utilize different economic and military metrics to forecast elections and found them all wanting. His final analysis was that presidential elections come down to "fifty percent the economy, fifty percent everything else." I think that's about right. That's why I've said that Obama could lose, not that he will. I think the contrary argument, that he CAN'T lose, which a number of people here have made, doesn't stand scrutiny.

[ericluxury]

Saying Obama could lose isn't saying much.
And nobody has said Obama can't lose, people have said they don't think Obama will lose.

[MrDys]

What's up with the democrats going out guns-a-blazin' at the GOP primary right now? Obama had this weird debate scorecard plastered all over facebook. And the party posted this (rather good, actually) attack video on Romney:



Shouldn't they just be hanging back and waiting for the GOP to destroy each other as they will inevitably do as part of a primary? Why jump into the fray so soon?

[pollymaepry]

Shouldn't they just be hanging back and waiting for the GOP to destroy each other

no?

[Umlaut]

Yeah, that whole "Wait for the GOP to destroy each other" strategy sounds a lot like the GOP's 2008 strategy of let the Democrats destroy each other after the drawn-out, nasty primary between Clinton and Obama. Didn't work out so well for them. I respect them being proactive.

[James Smann]

Yeah, I don't think it's wise to ignore the Republican candidates and hope they destroy each other. Even if it's not unwise, I want to see our President be the dynamic leader that he was supposed to be, and have the gumption to call "Bullshit' on the Republican candidates when he sees it. To me, it demonstrates that he's in this campaign with his whole heart. Maybe I'm wrong though...but just hanging back seems to be the worst thing he can do.

Also, does anyone else think Palin is going to join the race as soon as three or four of the obvious "also-rans" drop out?

[MrDys]

I dunno, for him to really start getting in-your-face-in-the-media about the re-election now, which is well over a year away reads (to me) as not giving a shit about all of the stuff going on right now that he should be handling in some manner or another.

Obama's image to this point has very much been of the "I'm above this petty squabbling shit that's going on, I have important things to do." This ramp up seems to be an image reversal and he's ready to dig in and get petty and squabbly. Just seems...misguided.

[Umlaut]

Eh, I see your point, but there's a difference between the DNC and Obama himself. And that's his campaign website, not WhiteHouse.gov. That's what a campaign does, and it's not particularly nasty, just highlighting what they've said.

[James Smann]

To MrDys's point though, on Facebook, the messages come from "Barack Obama" and not "Obama 2012." Unfortunately there are people dumb enough to not realize that page is run by his campaign. But I still think it's a better tactic for Obama to address the mud they sling his way in the primaries.

[ericluxury]

Obama's image to this point has very much been of the "I'm above this petty squabbling shit that's going on, I have important things to do." This ramp up seems to be an image reversal and he's ready to dig in and get petty and squabbly. Just seems...misguided.

I wonder if he can still get away with I'm above it all after this debt ceiling fight. I think he will have to fight. I imagine though he will have point people to do the dirtiest of the fighting and try to stay as clean as he can.

[Keith Whitener]

I want him to be the adult president that America needs, which means calling out bullshit as bullshit and then saying what needs to be said.

[Berliner]

He's starting on a bus tour today where he's gonna be doing a lot of that. I think there's a kind of myth among liberals about the power of the bully pulpit, but he's doing it...

Basically if he wants to solve problems, he needs to find ways of doing it outside of congress. That's the state of the country.

[Umlaut]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61606.html

[Berliner]

That would be my dream come true, and, may I add, would probably help us in terms of getting rid of AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES.

[Weinerslave]

Get ride of the Electoral College, abolish the Senate, and we could actually solve some goddamn problems up in this piece.

[scamboogah]

Have remotely attainable goals, stop confusing Rage Against The Machine lyrics for cogent political thought, and you could actually move political thought in your direction instead of repelling people to the right.

[Weinerslave]

Well, the Electoral College thing is pretty attainable, as you see. The Senate thing was just a call back to the Evander debate from months back. And fuck off.

[Big Box Of Money]

stop confusing Rage Against The Machine lyrics for cogent political thought

I really, really wish I had read this before I shot all of those people on Rodeo Drive.

[aenemaTron]

You think that's bad??